Forensic Thoughtprints

February 2, 2008

Decoding Peter de Vries’ Report: The Truth Amidst Joran’s Lies

Dutch investigative reporter Peter de Vries intends to reveal via Dutch television station SBS 6 on Feb. 3 Joran van der Sloot’s supposed new confession apparently made while he was secretly caught on tape by a de Vries associate working under cover. On his Web site, de Vries claims, “Case Natalee Holloway—Solved.” Not so fast.

On Feb. 1, Fox News commentator Geraldo Rivera released an early summary of de Vries’ findings. While de Vries’ work is certainly important, judging from Geraldo’s report, the Dutchman has made a serious error in taking Joran’s confession at face value. Prosecutors are in the same danger. And his report could be confusing to the ocean search team now seeking Natalee’s remains off the coast of Aruba. We can avoid that confusion by carefully reading the valuable messages we’ll find by decoding Joran’s thoughtprints contained in de Vries’ secret recordings. In other words, amidst Joran’s unquestionable lies we will find the truth about what caused Natalee’s death and where her body was placed. This is reminiscent of Deepak Kalpoe’s invaluable email of June 4, 2005. There, amidst his cover-up story, he revealed the truth about their assault on Natalee and the disposition of her body, a truth which has been reiterated by all three suspects between the lines of the falsehoods uttered during police interviews.

Now let’s consider de Vries’ so-called revelation. Supposedly, a “new friend” of Joran’s was secretly a plant who used a wire and a secret camera to eventually capture Joran on tape admitting his involvement in Natalee’s death. Joran told this man that while having sex with Natalee on the beach—completely voluntary on her part—that suddenly she suffered a cardiac arrest and died. Joran also reportedly said that Natalee had used drugs that night and implied the cardiac arrest occurred due to the drugs. At that point, he swims the body out into the ocean at a particular place and releases her, knowing that she will either wash up or be taken out to sea and be devoured by various predators.

Don’t believe for a minute that Joran is telling us the whole truth. He has previously confessed to various parts of the same story, always gradually giving up bits and pieces of the story on the surface. For example, he first reported sexual contact with Natalee in the backseat of Deepak’s Honda which he later changed to consensual sexual contact with her on the beach but no intercourse. He said he left her alone on the beach. Now he has progressed to saying he had intercourse with her and she died.

We know that in “confessions” to friends, family and fellow inmates, criminals routinely tell only part of the truth. Notice particularly how this new “confession” continues to favor Joran—the sex was voluntary and Natalee basically died as a result of her own decision to use drugs. Above all, he remains as innocent and lily-white as the driven snow—except of course for his decision to dispose of the body. We can remain sure of one clear fact—Joran is basically an inveterate liar, except that his deeper mind is indeed telling us the secret truth. Joran again confirms the same story that all three suspects have repeatedly told between the lines.

Now we glean the truth again by decoding Joran’s new confession.

1—Clearly he confirms that Natalee died during sexual intercourse. This matches my thoughtprint profile of Deepak’s June 4, 2005 email which showed she died in the midst of a brutal gang rape committed by the three suspects.

2—Joran confirms that Natalee died suddenly and fell unconscious due to a cardiac event. This indeed matches how Natalee suddenly died after aspirating and choking during the rape while accidentally being prevented from vomiting. Indeed Natalee suddenly quit breathing and her heart suddenly stopped beating as a result.

3—Joran confirms that drugs contributed to Natalee’s death. This matches the truth of the matter in that alcohol (which of course is a drug) and likely Ecstasy slipped into her drink contributed to her nausea which was exacerbated by the emotional trauma of the rape (vomiting is actually a rather common event during rapes). Joran and his pals had routinely utilized alcohol and drugs to get girls to go along with their late-night plans.

4—Joran confirms that they indeed disposed of her body in the ocean after transporting her some distance out. Certainly the thoughtprint profile (revealed in my book, “Into The Deep”) confirms that the suspects sailed the corpse out into the ocean by boat whereupon they dumped it.

5—Joran confirms that the body is not far out into the ocean. This matches the thoughtprint profile where Deepak makes plain that Natalee’s body is discoverable.

6—Joran confirms that the take-off point from which the suspects launched the boat with Natalee’s dead body aboard was almost certainly Fisherman’s Huts (see below). This is confirmed by his admission that he was on the beach with Natalee when she died. (Already he has depicted himself with Natalee on the beach near Fisherman’s Huts and may do so again in the de Vries tapes.) In his tape-recorded confession Joran likely will try to describe a different take-off point into the ocean with Natalee’s body, but we must revisit my profile which reveals that Fisherman’s Huts was indeed the point of departure. (This is particularly important since Deepak communicated that once into the ocean the boat went straight out before dumping the body. See my January 13, 2008 post.)

7—Joran’s idea that Natalee’s body may have been consumed by ocean predators match perfectly the thoughtprint profile where both Joran and Deepak admit that they were “sharks,” sexual and aggressive predators who destroyed Natalee.

8—Joran confirms that there are still two possibilities as regards Natalee’s body—either it will be discovered or continue to remain in the ocean. Clearly all three suspects, particularly Deepak, have unconsciously encouraged the ocean search for Natalee’s body, strongly suggesting it’s discoverable. 

9—In summary, Joran confirms the identical story which all three suspects have told all along between the lines.

We must consider certain other facts in Joran’s new confession. Once again he is attempting to spin a cover-up story amidst his pressure to confess. Clearly his conscience is driving him to partially confess, a process from which he obtains some relief. He continues to show that he simply cannot live with the consuming guilt that is eating him up. Note again that his taped confession basically lets him off the hook.

Also he continues to spin the only plausible theory which can be accepted by followers of the case—that he acted alone and had sexual contact with a cooperative and willing Natalee. No one would believe that the three suspects were all with Natalee until the end without immediately being highly suspicious of a group sexual assault. Certainly no one would believe that Natalee willingly participated in group sex.

Apart from my profile of the case other facts clearly point to a group assault/aspiration death/ocean-drop scenario. No one witnessed Joran on the beach alone with Natalee—or with any of the three suspects on the beach—simply because the event never happened although they did dispose of Natalee’s body by taking her over the beach on the way to the ocean. There was a break-in at Fisherman’s Huts that night. A knife went missing along with a large fishing cage, a perfect device in which to load a body into a boat and take it out into the ocean. Such an escapade would involve several people.

Importantly, two of Joran’s best friends—Koen and Sander Gottenbos—had a speedboat moored in the Marriott marina next to Fisherman’s Huts. Sander admitted in a police interview that he offered Joran a ride in his boat the day of Natalee’s disappearance—a statement that clearly connected Joran to the boat that day. Strikingly, on the day after Natalee disappeared, the Gottenbos family removed the boat from the water (though the boys had been regularly using it several days a week), sold the boat not long afterwards and moved within the year to the U.S. (Georgia) with Koen attending college in Holland.  (Some have reported the entire family moved to Holland. Importantly, thoughtprint decoding of Sander’s police interview strongly suggested he was involved in disposing of Natalee’s body and very guilt-ridden as a result.)

The Concern over Taking Joran’s Confession Literally

If they completely buy Joran’s new confession, the authorities will remain puzzled as to what truly happened to Natalee Holloway. The danger of course will be they come to believe him in toto and thus dismiss the evidence that the Kalpoes, Paulus van der Sloot and the Gottenbos boys were all involved in the crime or its cover-up.

Additionally, the ocean search team can similarly be misled about the body’s location. The searchers could swing to the opposite extreme and ignore his valuable communication which reinforces that they are indeed on the right path. If all concerned see the matching consistent ideas/thoughtprints, however, the authorities can resolve their confusion. (Unfortunately I have little hope that police and prosecutors will embrace this approach, except for a certain member of the prosecutor’s staff who sent the FBI to authenticate my profile in order to use it in their legal system). Most importantly, John Silvetti’s ocean search team should be encouraged when they understand Joran is providing them the identical specific instructions that Deepak Kalpoe did.

Joran’s Reaction to His Confession

After being confronted about the news of de Vries’ secret tapes, Joran made some very revealing comments. As I expected, he claimed he’d been lying when he made the comments to the undercover man. He was quoted by a reputable Dutch television show, “It is true I told someone. Everybody will see it Sunday. That is what he wanted to hear, so I told him what he wanted to hear.” Decoding Joran’s comments, we find this message amidst his denial: “it is true.” Denial is often a classic way of presenting the hidden truth. His repetition of the phrase about telling “what he wanted to hear” suggests Joran’s own hidden need to tell the truth, his own deep need to hear himself say that he did it. Certainly we can see the pressure building in him to confess in recent weeks.

Finally, Joran said, “It is stupid, it is so stupid, it is really stupid.” He cannot get over how stupidly he has behaved—first in leading the assault on Natalee, and now how he has “stupidly” confessed. But his deeper intelligence, his conscience which must speak, certainly specializes in “stupid confessions” which inadvertently contain the unadulterated truth. 

Stay tuned for more details after Joran's full "confession" is revealed in its entirety.